Local Appraisal Talk

September 22nd, 2014 5:44 PM
Ten or twelve years ago Lake Murray was rated one of the 10 best bass fishing lakes in the country. I know about 10 fisherman that retired and moved to the area because fishing was so great. These guys moved from Ohio, West Virginia, and Kentucky and they all bought homes on the lake. Since then, grass carp have been introduced to the lake and fishing has declined significantly (just look at the weights from the recent FLW event; lots of zero's were recorded). I don't think our bureaucrats know what a gem this lake is, or has been, to the local real estate market.

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Posted by Kevin Hurst Ormerod on September 22nd, 2014 5:44 PMLeave a Comment

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November 24th, 2013 9:15 PM
Even though foreclosures as a percentage of total sales in the Columbia area jumped up to almost 15% in the month of October, the yearly average has been fairly steady at about 14% of total sales.  The sale of new construction units last month was at a yearly low of about 15% of sales.  The highest month over the past year for new construction sales was over 25% of total sales.

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Posted by Kevin Hurst Ormerod on November 24th, 2013 9:15 PMLeave a Comment

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In most of the market areas around the Columbia Metropolitan Area housing sales have improved over the last several months.  It appears that prices have stabilized or are improving slightly.  As usual, our market tends to follow a few months behind the national average and the up and down trends are not as steep.

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Posted by Kevin Hurst Ormerod on September 25th, 2013 6:02 PMLeave a Comment

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July 15th, 2013 1:26 PM

Several Realtors have asked me to reintroduce my old monthly newsletter.  I am reluctant to do it as an email because agents and appraisers are getting blasted with email flyers, and all kinds of real estate related stuff that is filling email boxes and cluttering smart phones.  Here is a shortened Blog version.

Sales in June of 2013 were a lot better than June 2012 - up about 30%

Forecloses in June 2012 were 77 and in June 2013 were 118 - up about 53%

New construction sales in June 2012 were 178 and June 2013 were 177 - about the same.

The average sold price in June 2012 was $168,856

The average sold price in June 2013 was $173,479

This data is from the local CMLS.


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Posted by Kevin Hurst Ormerod on July 15th, 2013 1:26 PMLeave a Comment

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There is a new advisory from the Appraisal Foundation (Advisory #3) titled Residential Appraising in a Declining Market.  Here are some bullet points:

  • Defining a declining market is difficult
  • No commonly-accepted definition of a declining market
  • The appraiser must define the decline for the client
  • The appraiser must provide the timeframe analyzed

They do provide a list of indicators:

  • Oversupply, Demand and Supply (absorption)
  • Extended Marketing Times
  • Price Decreases in MLS
  • Prior year same sales
  • Sale Price and a percentage of original List Price
  • Increased REO and Foreclosure Sales

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Posted by Kevin Hurst Ormerod on June 16th, 2012 11:31 AMLeave a Comment

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April 23rd, 2012 2:40 PM

Based on unit sales, the Columbia Metropolitan Market seems to be doing much better this year compared to last year.  The pricing pressure is still downward on existing home sales, however, because there is still in excess of 15 months of inventory on the market.  That number needs to get down to 5 or 6 months before we can say the market has stabilized.  Existing home sales are roughly 60% of the market, new construction is about 25% and foreclosure sales represent about 15%.

 


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Posted by Kevin Hurst Ormerod on April 23rd, 2012 2:40 PMLeave a Comment

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February 14th, 2012 5:00 PM
Many of my non-lender clients keep asking me when we are going to stabilize.  My answer to them is still, "I don't know."  Some of my colleagues think some neighborhoods are stable.  I haven't found any, with the possible exception of the few new construction developments that are doing fairly well.  Currently, the inventory on the market ranges from a low of 10.3 months in the Lexington area to over 22 months for Lake Murray properties.  Most "experts" say that inventory has to be between 5 and 6 months for a stable market.  Less than 5 and there is upward price pressure and more than 6 there is downward price pressure.

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Posted by Kevin Hurst Ormerod on February 14th, 2012 5:00 PMLeave a Comment

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September 28th, 2011 12:03 PM
Great news!  For the 1st time in recent history I'm seeing a bit of a sales "bump".  In many of the market areas around the Metropolitan Area. There were more sales in August and the 1st part of September than there were during the same period one year ago.  I think many buyers have been sitting on the sidelines and they decided to pull the trigger on homes they were looking at and I also think investors are snapping up the low hanging fruit because interest rates are low and it is unlikely that the low end prices will go much lower.

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Posted by Kevin Hurst Ormerod on September 28th, 2011 12:03 PMLeave a Comment

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September 3rd, 2011 4:04 PM
For the first time in a couple of years there is an area in Columbia that had more sales last month than in the same month a year prior.  Granted, it was only 1% better, but do I see a light at the end of that tunnel or is there just a lot of pent up sales activity as Fall approaches.

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Posted by Kevin Hurst Ormerod on September 3rd, 2011 4:04 PMLeave a Comment

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Here is what I think is happening. At first I thought the supply & demand economic law was being broken but it isn’t. This economic downturn is different in that I don’t believe everyone is affected equally. The people that are directly affected are the folks that lost their jobs and the folks that are under-employed due to the economy. Most experts are saying this segment of the population comprises about 15% to 20% of the total -- these are the folks that are loosing their houses. There is another small segment at the entry-level that can’t get credit due to tightening underwriting requirements. The rest of the population is ‘relatively’ unaffected. Sure, they feel the affects of higher gas prices and higher grocery prices but by and large they reap the benefits of discounts and deals on high-ticket items such as houses -- their salaries are the same or slightly higher.

Here is the deal! There is a large pool of houses for sale (more than normal due to the economy) and there is a much smaller pool of buyers (also due to the economy). The buyers that remain in the market have just as much money to spend now as they would have if there wasn’t a downturn. In other words, if they had a $250,000 budget a couple of years ago they still have a $250,000 budget today. The buyers out there continue to buy as much house as they can for their money. What they are finding is they can buy a newer house or they can buy a bigger house or they can buy in a much better neighborhood for the same $250,000.

This is why “The Average Price Paid” looks about the same even though the price of individual houses has declined significantly in our area. This is what I mean when I say that using ‘Average Selling Price’ as an indicator can be very misleading.


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Posted by Kevin Hurst Ormerod on July 13th, 2011 2:32 PMLeave a Comment

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